We’re going to fire up a new project here at Swing State Project, now that we’ve churned through the competitive senate and gubernatorial races in our statewide recruiting threads. We’re moving on to the House races where we’re facing the most vulnerable Republicans. We’ll be turning to the Vulnerability Index that I put together last week as a means of seeing who exactly those vulnerable Republicans are.
Actually, it’s not an entirely new project, as last week diarist peebles put up a couple very good diaries on this topic, on two of our best pickup opportunities in 2010, LA-02 and MN-03. Based on the traffic these diaries got, it’s a topic that belongs on the front page, and we’ll be discussing other top pickup possibilities in coming days.
So with LA-02 already discussed, let’s turn to what the numbers tell me is the 2nd most vulnerable seat: PA-06. Jim Gerlach, despite his moderate record, has labored to hold onto this D+2 seat in Philadelphia’s western suburbs. His margins have never broken out of the low single digits, even when faced with a little-known second-tier opponent like Bob Roggio in 2008. Added to the mix is the possibility that Gerlach, fed up with close races and the possibility of a redistricting-related demise in 2012, may be looking to vacate this seat to run for the governor’s seat in 2010. This would leave an open seat where Dems might well be favored (although longtime state representative Curt Schroder has dibs on the GOP nomination, and could be a strong opponent).
With that in mind, here are some possible Democratic contenders for the seat:
Bob Roggio: We’ve had a good deal of fun at SSP at Roggio’s expense, but you have to admit that he performed very well, in the final accounting, as an underfunded opponent starting out virtually unknown (coming closer than, say, Dan Seals or Darcy Burner, who had the big money and familiarity advantages while running in similar districts). Roggio himself says that he was feeling 50-50 about running again, if Gerlach didn’t run.
Joe Torsella: This is the same Joe Torsella you sometimes see mentioned in the context of the 2010 Senate race, where he’d be a major underdog. He was deputy mayor of Philadelphia under Ed Rendell in his early 30s, was director of the National Constitution Center for a decade until last month (indicating something’s brewing), and lost to Allyson Schwartz in the PA-13 primary to replace Joe Hoeffel. He was rumored to have been a 2008 candidate; he certainly seems interested in running for something next time, and PA-06 seems more within his pay grade than the Senate.
Christopher Casey: Seems like there’s a Casey waiting to go in almost every district, and that’s good, as the Casey name is still golden. Christopher is brother to the current senator, and is an attorney in Philly (though a Chester County resident). He turned down DCCC recruitment efforts for the 2008 election.
Andy Dinniman: There’s not much of a bench of state senators to draw from in this district (indicating that we still have a long way to go in turning the Philly burbs blue at the legislative and county courthouse levels). Dinniman, from West Chester in the 19th Senate district, turned down the chance to run in 2008. The only other Dem senator who may (or may not) be in this district is Michael O’Pake from Reading in the 11th Senate district. (Reading is gerrymandered in half, to keep its minority populations out of PA-06, so O’Pake may reside in PA-16. Also, he’s in the Dem minority leadership in the Senate, and may be focused on staying there.) Democratic state representatives in this district include Paul Drucker from Tredyffrin Twp. and Dave Kessler from Boyertown.
Melissa Fitzgerald: The former West Wing actress, who has local connections to the district, was reportedly interested in the race last time, but eventually faded from view. Other names that burbled up in the search that eventually gave us Bob Roggio, who could resurface, include Larry Platt, a Philadelphia magazine editor, and Mike Leibowitz, a Montgomery County real estate executive who lost the MontCo Dems endorsement to Roggio.
UPDATE: One other name that I hadn’t considered, but has been suggested both in a comment from a PA-06 resident and in an e-mail from an in-the-know tipster, is Dan Wofford, son of ex-Sen. Harris Wofford and the 2002 candidate who barely lost in Gerlach’s first race. He’s been out of the limelight since then, but apparently is considering another shot.
Any Pennsylvanians out there have any other scuttlebutt or ideas?
I’d say give him another chance, but this time, D-trip, give him some money, will ya?
that Torsella is running for Senate. I’ve heard so from people in a position to know.
Our two Republican House reps, Steve King (IA-05) and Tom Latham (IA-04), are not vulnerable. I believe in fighting Republicans everywhere, but I am wondering whether it is worth even trying to recruit strong Democratic candidates against them. Rob Hubler worked so hard for 22 months and barely did any better than the Democrat who was just a name on the ballot and hardly campaigned against Steve King at all.
I see the wisdom in at least having someone try to rough up Latham in 2010 with a view to the 2012 race (where we may face Latham in 2012), but I don’t know who would take on that hopeless task.
Maybe Iowa Democrats should just focus on re-electing Culver and maintaining/enlarging our statehouse majorities in 2010.
What do people think?
By the way, there is no sign that Leonard Boswell plans to retire, but rumor has it that Christie Vilsack would consider running in IA-03 if Boswell did step down before the 2010 election.
and ye shall receive. I’m new to posting on the site (long time reader, first time poster) but I live in the 6th and was pretty close to the Murphy campaigns and am fairly active in Chester County politics.
First, let me say THANK YOU for this! This seat is so winnable, but Lois Murphy was so awful, we dropped the ball this year. I’ve got some criticisms I could make of Bob Roggio as a candidate (although not as a man, he’s a terrific person) but he did very well for being so far behind the 8-ball. If he was given half the money that Lois was given, he would’ve won and this was an absolute failure of the DCCC (and, yes, the netroots). Him running again isn’t optimal, but wouldn’t be a bad idea.
The optimal candidate is Andy Dinniman. He’s beloved in Chester County, knocked off a heavy favorite in a special election for the State Senate, and was a long time County Commissioner. His campaigns are run very well, his office is run very well, he’d be a stellar candidate. Add in his close ties to the Caseys and organized labor and he might even start as the favorite. BUT he’s in his 60s and, from everything I’ve seen, he is not likely to run. He gets a free shot at it in 2010 (Senate seat isn’t up until 2012) but failing a draft movement, he’s not running. (NOTE: Although his district is centered in my hometown of West Chester, Andy lives in West Whiteland – West Chester is in Joe Pitts’ 16th District).
Dan Wofford, the 2002 candidate, is another likely candidate. He almost won in an awful year for Democrats, good speaker, good fundraiser, and a good campaigner. Plus, his father was former Senator Harris Wofford. He’s another candidate who would likely win, but he’s declined to run for a lot of offices and it’s 50/50 at best if he’ll run this time.
I think Leibowitz is a great guy, but he’s (somewhat unfairly) not considered a real candidate in the local parties.
After the awful mistake of Lois Murphy, I think you’re unlikely to see any Montgomery County residents run for this office. Any Democrat will win Montgomery County but you can’t run up a big enough tally there to win the district. Any successful candidate is going to come out of Chester County (like Roggio and Wofford) or Berks County (where Reading is).
As for some of the other names mentioned, Curt Schroeder is very popular here but also hasn’t had a real race in, well, I can’t even remember. Paul Drucker is going to have a tough enough time winning re-election (the local GOP overreached and put up an insane wingnut to replace a popular moderate). But otherwise, yes, the bench is thin – we’ve lost three different HDs in this district in the last two cycles by less than a total of 5 points. The Philly burbs are a place where any sort of support for down-ticket races are huge – especially with redistricting looming.
of Dan Wofford personally. He ran a pretty good campaign in 02 and judging by his fathers politics would be a solid representative.
But I’ll defer to the locals, just as long as it’s not Roggio I’d be pretty happy.
it’s laughable. None of the people on that list will be running for that seat, save one.